WASHINGTON: The surge of Cubans fleeing to the United States could grow as uncertainty swirls around the island about whether Donald Trump will end the still nascent U.S. diplomatic relations with Cuba once he becomes president.
Experts say the current influx of Cubans, which is already double the rate that existed before relations were restored at the end of 2014, could rival the 1980 Mariel boatlift, especially if Trump fiddles with the special privileges Cuban immigrants receive from the United States. Trump and some Cuban American leaders such as Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., have suggested curbs on those privileges.
“The notion of opening gave people hope. Closing doesn’t give anyone hope. Closing gives them fear,” said Eduardo Gamarra, who helped arriving Mariel refugees in the 1980s and now is a professor at Florida International University.
The United States is already undergoing one of the greatest influx of Cubans since the 1980 Mariel boatlift when Fidel Castro allowed more than 125,000 to leave Cuba amid a weakened economy.
In the days since, there have been signs of anxiety among ordinary Cubans, who lined up outside the U.S. Embassy in Havana on the day after Republican Trump defeated Democrat Hillary Clinton in the Nov. 8 presidential election. The Cuban government followed with an announcement that the military would be conducting tactical exercises to prepare troops to confront “a range of actions by the enemy.”
The death of revolutionary leader Fidel Castro a few days later and the struggles of the Cuban economy have increased uncertainty on the island.
Groups that assist Cuban migrants such as Church World Service have made sure they have additional places for refugees to stay if they see an uptick in arrivals. Miami schools are ready for another potential influx.
The U.S. Coast Guard hasn’t seen a major change in the numbers crossing the Florida Straits, but they’re prepared to respond with increased patrol boats and additional flights to locate vessels.
“We’re watching the situation very closely,” said Willie Carmichael, deputy chief of enforcement for the Coast Guard 7th district in Miami. “If we start to see those indications of more increased flow, we’re positioned to respond.”
The numbers of Cubans who have entered the U.S. has spiked dramatically since President Barack Obama and Cuban President Raul Castro announced a renewal of ties with the island nation in late 2014.
During the first 11 months of fiscal year 2016, more than 50,000 Cubans entered the U.S. via ports of entry, a 25 percent increase from last year’s total of 43,159, according to U.S. Customs and Border Protection data.
Earlier this year, Trump questioned the fairness of the Cuban Adjustment Act, which lets Cubans obtain legal status and a path to citizenship even if they arrive without a visa or are smuggled into the country, when other immigrants must wait years.