With the first wave of NFL free agency complete, the latest trend among draft analysts is to predict all of the incoming rookie quarterbacks who will be available to the Browns when they go on the clock at No. 12 overall.
ESPN’s Todd McShay is among the experts forecasting the Browns’ dream scenario.
Assuming the Browns will draft Texas A&M defensive end Myles Garrett at No. 1 overall but won’t pull off a blockbuster trade for New England Patriots backup Jimmy Garoppolo or another veteran quarterback, using the 12th pick on coach Hue Jackson’s favorite quarterback in the draft would be a no-brainer.
In McShay’s most recent mock draft, he has the Browns choosing Clemson national championship-winning quarterback Deshaun Watson over North Carolina quarterback Mitchell Trubisky, who grew up a die-hard Browns fan in Mentor. McShay has the Houston Texans picking Trubisky 25th overall.
McShay conceded Wednesday the Watson-Trubisky debate is “a tough call,” even though Watson has by far the more impressive resume.
Watson, 6-foot-2½ and 221 pounds, finished his collegiate career 32-3 as a starter. Trubisky, 6-2⅛ and 222 pounds, didn’t become a starter until last year and went 8-5.
“They’re both right there in terms of grades,” McShay said during a conference call. “With Watson, you know what you’re getting from a game experience standpoint. You know he’s been there, he’s been through a lot of wars and played a lot of top competition and has had great success. But there’s some things he’s got to work out in terms of going through progressions, NFL reads and deep accuracy.
“With Trubisky, love his pocket poise and mobility. I love the way he played late in some games, driving the team down after having some struggles and bouncing back from mistakes. I also thought he was really accurate, and the more tape I watched of Trubisky, to be quite honest, the more I liked. But I also worry about the 13 starts, the lack of game experience and just wonder how long it’s going to take him to get game-ready and be prepared to be an adequate starter in the league.”
Watson’s character, leadership ability and football IQ are off the charts, McShay said. He added Watson is mobile and possesses enough arm strength to make every NFL throw, but concerns lie in his downfield passing and the 30 interceptions he threw the past two seasons. “I did a six-game study where Watson completed 79 percent of his throws within 25 yards of the line of scrimmage, but he completed just 29 percent beyond 25 yards past the line of scrimmage,” McShay said. “ ... His deep-ball accuracy needs to improve, but it can improve. I think there a couple small, mechanical tweaks that he needs to work on.”
Clemson’s spread offense didn’t require Watson to read the whole field.
“It was more half-field reads, a lot of zone-read option, ball coming out quickly, a lot of stuff on the move,” McShay said. “I saw him leave a lot of open receivers on the field, a lot of throws on the field. Then part of that, too, is the decision making. He’s not used to going through progressions from one side of the field to the other and doing it very quickly, and I think sometimes he just didn’t see dropping linebackers, guys squatting, safeties coming from the backside, those sorts of things, and it was a part of the reason why he had 30 interceptions the last two years.”
There are several things to like about Trubisky — and there’s a good chance Jackson prefers him — but his lack of experience is a turn off.
“He has the best pocket presence and feel inside the pocket of the quarterbacks in this class,” McShay said. “I think he’s up there among the most accurate in terms of all three levels of the field. I think that he’s just as mobile as Watson, and he has some toughness and charisma that Watson has.
“Seeing the entire field is one thing that he’s got to improve upon, and then the 13 starts is just scary. There’s not a lot to go on in terms of guys who have had sustained success in the NFL with so few starts and such limited game experience. It’s going to be interesting to see how he’s utilized and if the team that drafts him is able to sit him for a year.”
Second tier of QBs
McShay does not have Notre Dame’s DeShone Kizer or Texas Tech’s Patrick Mahomes going in the first round of his latest mock. Remember, the Browns have the first pick of the second round (No. 33 overall).
Watson and Trubisky thrived while throwing at the NFL Scouting Combine, but the accuracy issues of Kizer, 6-4¼ and 233 pounds, were on display.
“[Watson and Trubisky] are ahead of Kizer, even though Kizer, physically, is the most gifted of the three in terms of size, arm strength — he has an absolute rifle for an arm — and he has good mobility as well,” McShay said. “But he’s just so up and down with his consistency and the accuracy and really did not play very well in some clutch situations. ... He’s probably going to be a late first-round pick, somewhere in that range, but it won’t surprise me if he’s still on the board when we get to Day 2.”
Mahomes, 6-2 and 225 pounds, has phenomenal arm talent, though his mechanics are all out of whack. McShay sees the upside but is convinced Mahomes must sit and learn behind an established starter and a reliable backup to have a chance at success.
“If you have a couple of years where you can just kind of put him in the witness protection program, not count on him even to be a backup that has to play as a reserve and can develop him on the back end and get him ready, I think he’s got a chance to be a really good starter in the league a few years down the road,” McShay said. “But I don’t think using a first-round pick and expecting him to play right away is realistic or wise.”
About the No. 1 pick
The Browns will likely use the top selection on Garrett, but would it be a wise move?
Garrett, 6-4½ and 272 pounds, looks as if he’s been built in a laboratory where pass rushers are engineered, and he had a phenomenal combine workout. But he didn’t consistently hustle, play well against the run or swarm to the ball at Texas A&M.
“He got better versus the run this year,” McShay said. “You can find a handful of plays where defensive linemen, especially when you’re playing spread offenses and the defense is on the field 100 snaps a game, [are] not chasing from one side of the field to the other.
“People are starting to lump him in with [Texans edge rusher and former No. 1 overall pick] Jadeveon Clowney in terms of the effort [he showed in college]. I didn’t see that. I thought he gave a lot more consistent effort. I actually thought he got bigger and stronger this past offseason, and I thought he played stronger versus the run.
“So I don’t have any issues. I’ve got him as the No. 1 overall player, and I think he’s going to be just fine.”
Nate Ulrich can be reached at nulrich@thebeaconjournal.com. Read the Browns blog at www.ohio.com/browns. Follow him on Twitter at www.twitter.com/NateUlrichABJ and on Facebook www.facebook.com/abj.sports.