Economists and researchers released a trove of housing data and recommendations this week as part of a collaborative mission to jump-start development in Akron, where new construction hasn’t been this slow since World War II.
In the second of three studies expected this year, the Greater Ohio Policy Center (GOPC) and DiSalvo Development Advisors, a real estate consultancy, published Thursday a 53-page report: “Build in Akron: Opportunities for Residential Reinvestment in Akron’s Neighborhoods.” The research and strategies in it build on a plan released two weeks ago by Mayor Dan Horrigan and city planners.
A third report, which dissects Akron into 200 geographical housing markets, is expected next month from the Philadelphia-based Reinvestment Fund.
The second study aims to boost Akron’s population from less than 200,000 today to 250,000 by 2050, a lofty goal set early on the job by Horrigan’s staff.
The GOPC report diagnoses the health of Akron’s housing, often considered too affordable to be profitable, at least for developers. It establishes benchmarks and advances “data-driven” debates that began a year ago between a new City Hall, wary developers and other stakeholders.
“Where do we stand today as a new administration takes over?” said Kyle Kutuchief, Akron program director for the John S. and James L. Knight Foundation.
“The north star,” he said of measuring progress, “is population decline in Akron and this debate among developers over rooftops or retail. Well, rooftops is 50 percent of that equation so it’s worth having a deeper conversation.”
The Knight Foundation paid GOPC to conduct the “CT scan or MRI” of Akron’s housing market. With the challenging diagnosis comes a slew of prescriptions based on best practices across Ohio and the nation.
“We are so thrilled that Akron is even having this discussion … This really is ahead of the curve for much of the rest of the state,” said GOPC Executive Director Alison Goebel, who sees the city as an experimental testing ground.
“Akron is such a model in terms of a weak-market city, unfortunately. There are certainly many more that are weaker,” she said. “But, really, if we can figure out how to do it in Akron, it seems that a lot of other places around the state are also going to benefit from this.”
Rating regions
The city’s initial report examined housing values, median incomes, demolitions, vacancy rates, ages of homes and other factors for each of Akron’s 24 neighborhoods. The GOPC report goes a step further by labeling each neighborhood based on its potential and readiness to develop housing.
The labels reflect risks and opportunities for investment.
In areas with weak local employment and rock-bottom property values, building has little return on investment. These “below market” neighborhoods — Goodyear Heights, East and South Akron, Summit Lake and Sherbondy Hill — form a U shape around the city’s core. “Largely beyond the scope of this report,” GOPC researchers expect downtown development and the prospect of job growth to indirectly benefit these inner-ring neighborhoods as young professionals seek room and space to grow a family.
At the other end of the spectrum are “market-ready” neighborhoods where healthy rental rates and home values have development on autopilot. Areas falling into this category include downtown — the target of recent private and public investment — and newer, more affluent neighborhoods on the city’s suburban edges.
Between marketable and distressed, though, is where the city and GOPC see the most potential.
Despite low rent and home values, the report considers Ellet, West Akron, Wallhaven and Northwest Akron “poised for growth” because of their proximity to nearby employers.
For various reasons (a booming foreign-born population in North Hill, opening West Hill to downtown after the innerbelt removal and stable housing in Firestone Park and Kenmore), the last neighborhoods are “future hot spots.” Here, researchers believe large, mixed-use projects (think East End Apartments in Middlebury) could transform neighborhoods.
Attack plan
The city’s cornerstone strategy is a tax abatement for private developers and homeowners.
The Columbus-based GOPC applauds that and other first steps. The group cautions that there is no silver bullet, and some initiatives may benefit one neighborhood and miss another.
But here is what they’ve come up with:
• Rebuild the downtown rental market, which would create a pipeline of single-family buyers in and around downtown.
• Capitalize on millennials’ interest in urban living by erecting projects that blend residential and retail amenities, as Cleveland has.
• Through collaborations between banks and philanthropic organizations, coax banks that avoid giving small loans to lend by including the cost of future repairs in mortgages.
• Foster more community development corporations, as in Highland Square or East Akron, and engage local hospitals, as Cincinnati did to let its health care system drive better outcomes and housing for local residents.
• Leverage county and regional land banks and port authorities to accelerate the acquisition of property for redevelopment.
Doug Livingston can be reached at 330-996-3792 or dlivingston@thebeaconjournal.com. Follow on Twitter: @ABJDoug .